Michael Ignatieff probably wasn’t expecting a Christmas present from the Prime Minister this year, but as it turns out he got a big one, just before 2010 kicked in.
Stephen Harper’s decision to prorogue parliament and his subsequent rationalizing of doing so has been as well received as Ignatieff’s fall decision to try and force an election.
Many pundits have been keen to write the political obituaries of both of these men, over the past two years. However, with neither leader pushing for an election anytime soon it appears the focus will shift from trying to determine the date of the next election to why parliament isn’t debating important policy issues like torture, climate change, crime legislation and parliamentary Senate reform.
Recent polls are demonstrating a reversal of trends for the Liberals. Before the Christmas break, they appeared to be in free fall, but the Afghanistan detainee issue and the bizarre decision to prorogue parliament until March 2nd have put the government on the defensive and Harper in the penalty box.
A poll released yesterday by Strategic Counsel has the two parties in a near statistical tie. However, it should be the noted that the change in fortunes has more to do with a Conservative decline in popularity; Liberal support seems to have mainly been restored to its traditional base of 30%.
For the Liberals to gain that extra 6-10% they need to form the next government, they must rebrand their leader and provide a set of policies that connect with the hearts and minds of the average Canadian. The current cross country tour of Canadian Universities is a step in the right direction to achieving the first goal, while the Montreal policy conference scheduled for later in the year is aimed at achieving the other. Ignatieff’s performance the past few days and the subsequent media reviews are evidence the first plan is working.
The Prime Minister, although down, should not be counted out. He has proven time and time again the ability to resurrect his political career. He will get his first opportunity to do so in less than thirty days. The 2010 Olympics in Vancouver will give the PMO spin machine countless PR opportunities to profile Harper as an average Canadian taking in the excitement of the Winter Games.